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Currency moves stayed subdued in early Asia trade with US markets closed, while the dollar struggled to sustain Friday’s jobs-report boost. (Freepik pic)
SINGAPORE: The dollar was on shaky ground on Monday, despite a ramp-up in US rate hike bets as Middle East tensions raised the prospect of broader inflationary pressures that could force global central banks to tighten policy in tandem.
A shift in sentiment towards the Japanese yen and worries about ever-growing US debt and policy uncertainties also weighed on the greenback.
Moves in currencies were largely subdued in early Asia trade with US markets closed for a holiday, though the dollar struggled to sustain a brief lift it received from Friday's blowout US jobs report.
The euro was up marginally at US$1.1618, while sterling was little changed at US$1.3519. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar fell 0.07% to 99.09, not far from its recent low of 98.558.
Traders moved to price in a roughly 57% chance the Federal Reserve will hike rates this month in the wake of the nonfarm payrolls release, with much now depending on Friday's inflation data.
"A hot CPI print would all but seal a September hike and underpin a firmer US dollar. A cooler reading would strengthen the case for a hold and leave the US dollar vulnerable to a dovish Fed repricing," said Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at BBH.
"Even if a September Fed hike becomes a done deal, we doubt the US dollar will make new cyclical highs. Tightening by other major central banks limits policy divergence."
The inflationary impulse from still-elevated oil prices is a major reason the European Central Bank is seen certain to lift rates to 2.75% on Thursday. Futures also imply a 75% chance of another hike to 3.0% by December.
Likewise, markets are pricing a 75% chance the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise rates a quarter point at its meeting on Sept 18, with a 60% probability of another move by December.
Change in tide
The yen rose more than 0.2% to 155.88 per dollar on Monday, extending gains after Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi's economic adviser projected a BOJ hike this month.
The Japanese currency had surged more than 2% last week, following a confluence of factors including the unwinding of carry trades and expectations of capital repatriation that would boost the yen.
Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered, said that while carry trades have been among the strongest macro performers year-to-date despite a surge in borrowing costs globally, the "recent burst" of yen strength is a "potential threat to carry outperformance".
"If the JPY were to strengthen persistently, this may signal that the increase in JPY and USD rates is starting to trigger a change in asset allocation," he said.
In other currencies, the Australian dollar advanced 0.12% to US$0.7208, while the New Zealand dollar was flat at US$0.5880.
Bitcoin steadied above the US$80,000 level and was last at US$80,145.95, having drawn support recently as investors diversified away from the dollar into other assets.
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