JPMorgan Predicts Bitcoin Will Outpace Stocks, Bonds, and Gold Over the Next Decade. Is Bitcoin Now a Screaming Buy?

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Key takeaways

JPMorgan forecasts 10% annualized returns for Bitcoin over the next decade.
The bank cites high volatility and unstable correlations as reasons Bitcoin is not yet included in its core asset allocation models.
Analysts suggest limiting Bitcoin to about 5% of a portfolio for investors with a high risk tolerance.

JPMorgan Chase's asset management division recently released the 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, an annual research report that includes 10- to 15-year return projections. For the first time, it has a returns forecast for Bitcoin, and expects the top cryptocurrency to outperform the major asset classes.

It's another sign of the growing acceptance of cryptocurrency. CEO Jamie Dimon previously called Bitcoin a fraud, and as recently as 2025, he said he didn't see its value. However, a positive forecast doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin is a slam-dunk investment.

What JPMorgan projected

JPMorgan's base case for Bitcoin is 10% annualized returns over the next 10 to 15 years, but the bank sees a wide range of potential returns. Its bear case is -11.2%, and its bull case is about 16.5%.

For perspective, JPMorgan forecasts annualized returns of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 7.7% for small-cap stocks, 5.5% for gold, and 5.6% to 6.6% for U.S. bonds. Real estate investment trusts came in at 8.2%.

If JPMorgan's base cases are accurate, $100 invested in Bitcoin would grow to $259 over the next 10 years. The same amount invested in large caps would grow to $206.

This isn't a buy recommendation from JPMorgan

The press release for JPMorgan's report specifically noted that Bitcoin isn't included as an allocation. The bank also hasn't yet included Bitcoin in its main covariance matrices, the models it uses to determine how much of an asset belongs in a portfolio.

JPMorgan laid out two obstacles to Bitcoin portfolio use: volatility and unstable correlations with other assets. Cryptocurrency is known for its volatility, and in Bitcoin's case, JPMorgan assumes 55% annualized volatility, compared to 18% for U.S. large caps and 17.2% for gold.

This volatility is why there's such a large gap between the bull and bear cases for Bitcoin. In the bear case, where Bitcoin loses 11.2% per year, you'd end up with roughly 30% of your money after 10 years.

Bitcoin's unstable correlations with other assets make it difficult to allocate in a portfolio. You can't count on it as a hedge or to balance out risk, because even though it's sometimes called “digital gold,” Bitcoin doesn't perform that way. Gold has held its value during several stock sell-offs, whereas Bitcoin frequently falls with the stock market.

Is Bitcoin a screaming buy?

A small position in Bitcoin is worth considering if you have a high tolerance for risk and volatility. The cryptocurrency has historically outperformed stocks by a wide margin during its bull markets, with the trade-off that it suffers much greater losses during bear markets. As of Oct. 26, with Bitcoin trading about 36% below the all-time high it set in October 2025, investors can buy in well below its peak.

It's not a must-have, though -- investing in stocks is the far more proven option, and you don't need Bitcoin to get market-beating returns. Even JPMorgan considers Bitcoin a speculative asset, and its bear case shows the potential downside. If you decide to buy Bitcoin, a sensible approach is to limit it to about 5% of your portfolio.

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