Optimism creeps back into crypto, with the 2022 test still to come
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History also argues against a “one and done” rate rise. On only one occasion since 1994 has the Fed raised rates once and then stopped. Futures markets are pricing in a further 75 basis-point increase in the next six months. Goldman Sachs moved its forecast for the next hike forward to October.
The complication is that the Fed is tightening into a supply shock it cannot reach. Core inflation has eased to 2.4%, its lowest in five years, but both Brent and WTI crude are above $100 and U.S. diesel prices hit a record this week, while the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5%.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh conceded the point directly, saying the central bank cannot affect individual prices, but can stop relative price changes broadening out.
The early signs of optimism are there, with zcash at a record high and bitcoin holding its ground through both a failed regulatory push and the first rate rise in three years. The 2022 comparison becomes testable at the end of the month, when the rally from four years ago petered out. Stay alert!
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