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Bitcoin BTC$61,412.97 is wobbling near $61,000 and data due later today could push it over the edge along with the wider crypto market.
The U.S. consumer price index for May is due to hit the wires at 8:30 a.m. ET. The figure is expected to show the cost of living in the world's largest economy rose 4.2% year-on-year, a three-year high, following April's 3.8% reading, according to Reuters.
That would put inflation more than two full percentage points above the Fed's 2% target. Concerns the Fed is likely to raise interest rates are already weighing on bitcoin, and more evidence is likely to send the largest cryptocurrency even lower.
That said, bitcoin's reaction will depend less on the headline figure and more on what's underneath it.
The key question is whether inflation broadened across multiple categories or remained concentrated in energy. If it's the latter, markets may well dismiss the print as a transitory effect of the first-quarter spike in oil prices driven by the war with Iran.
This looks plausible given the CBOE Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has already cooled to pre-war levels and WTI crude fell over 16% to $87 a barrel last month. It continues to trade around those levels.
"A 0.3% MoM core inflation reading (consensus est.) could prompt a small initial rally in rates, if driven by transitory factors (e.g., fuel surcharges)," MUFG Research said. "But if inflation broadens out, it will impact a market already on edge triggering a minor sell-off."
For bitcoin traders, a hotter-than-forecast figure across several sectors raises the probability of a break below $60,000. According to CME Fed fund futures, traders are already pricing in a year-end rate at least 25 basis points higher than the current 3.50%-3.75% range.
A downside surprise, on the other hand, could trigger a relief rally, especially given BTC is looking oversold on key indicators, such as the RSI.
Either way, volatility is likely to be elevated. The direction is the CPI's to decide. Stay alert!
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