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Prediction markets are assigning a growing probability that XRP will reclaim the $2 level before the end of 2027, with traders currently seeing the highest odds of a breakout by December 31, 2027.
Indeed, markets are pricing a 67% chance that XRP reaches the milestone by the end of 2027.
The probability stands at 61% by June 30, 2027, 59% by September 30, 2027, and 48% by March 31, 2027.
For 2026, the odds remain considerably lower at 23% by December 31 and just 6% by September 30, according to Polymarket data retrieved by Finbold on September 6.
The market suggests participants expect XRP to take several more quarters to mount a sustained move above $2, a level well above the token’s current trading range below $1.50.
The prediction market outlook comes as XRP continues to trade far below a major technical resistance level identified by cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez.
As reported by Finbold, Martinez noted that XRP has been forming a decade-long ascending triangle pattern on the monthly chart.
The analyst argued that a monthly close above $3.66 would confirm a breakout and potentially open the door to significantly higher price targets over the long term.
While the $3.66 level remains the primary technical hurdle, XRP would first need to reclaim $2 before challenging higher resistance zones.
Recent market activity also shows traders remain engaged despite price weakness. XRP recorded elevated trading volumes through August, even as the token pulled back from its recent highs near $1.70.
XRP price analysis
By press time, XRP was trading at $1.42, up about 1% in the past 24 hours. On the weekly timeframe, the asset was also in the green, gaining nearly 2%.
Following these modest gains, XRP’s technical structure remains constructive. At the current price, the token is trading above both its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.17 and its 200-day SMA at $1.27, a sign that the medium- and long-term trend remains bullish.
The gap between the current price and these moving averages suggests buyers remain in control despite recent volatility.
Momentum is also supportive, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) at 60.37. The reading remains in neutral territory, indicating bullish momentum without the market being overbought. This suggests XRP still has room to advance before approaching the 70 level that often signals overheating.
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