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As SpaceX IPO approaches, Polymarket, Ventuals assign $2 trillion valuation onchain
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Elon Musk's SpaceX sets the price of its Friday IPO on Nasdaq later today. While the company is currently valued at roughly $1.77 trillion, blockchain-based pre-IPO price discovery derivatives and prediction markets seem to think that's too low.
That gap is evident from three markets: Onchain perpetuals futures offered by Ventuals and , both running on Hyperliquid, and Polymarket's implied first-day close. These have all converged on the $1.8 trillion-$2.1 trillion range, according to data source Allium.
Right now, traders on Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, assign a 64% chance that SpaceX will close its first trading day above a $2 trillion valuation. A close above $3 trillion? Polymarket gives a 5% chance.
In other words, the market expects a strong debut, but not a blowout.
For bitcoin traders, the IPO serves as a real-world test of the dominant narrative: that the offering has been draining risk capital from crypto, contributing to the recent price decline.
If that theory holds, capital should flow back into bitcoin and crypto once the IPO is out of the way and the initial allocation frenzy subsides. Stay alert!
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