Live updates: Bitcoin slides below $76,000 as Clarity Act passage odds fade
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Market-implied odds of the Clarity Act getting through this year have climbed to about 30% from the low 20s, after Senate Republicans released a revised 630-page draft folding in scores of Democratic provisions to reach the 60 votes needed, according to Yusuf Fakhro, partner at ARP Digital.
"Downside from a failed vote is largely priced; a surprise passage is not," Fakhro said.
Activity has drained out of the derivatives market in the meantime. Funding rates, the fee traders pay to hold leveraged long positions, have drifted toward zero, futures premiums have fallen back below 5% and open interest has stalled.
Thin leverage means no pile of forced sellers waiting to be liquidated, and it also means nothing is anchoring price, so each headline pushes bitcoin further than it should.
Last week showed the effect. Bitcoin ripped 5% to $81,000 on Thursday on softer Fed signals, then gave the entire move back within hours when strong payrolls revived hike expectations.
Demand has not gone anywhere so far. Bitcoin exchange-traded products took in nearly 14,000 BTC over the week, including 10,700 BTC on Sept. 3, the strongest single day since April 2025.
The Fed decides on Wednesday with the market leaning toward a quarter-point hike, a day after the cloture vote.
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