AI Price Prediction: Insights from Grok on Bitcoin’s Potential by Election Day

Grok analyzes Bitcoin market data

Grok, the AI chatbot developed by xAI, expects that Bitcoin could close around $85,000 on November 3, 2026, the day of the U.S. midterm elections. This forecast is only slightly above Bitcoin’s current price of about $82,940, as of October 11.

Bitcoin has dipped 2.7% in the past week but gained 7.4% over the last month. In just two weeks, it hit a high of $87,249 on October 2, then fell to $80,000 on October 8. So, how did Grok arrive at the $85,000 target, and how much weight should Bitcoin holders give it?

Before we asked our question, we gave Grok some relevant data. At the time, Bitcoin was trading at $83,007, roughly a year after it hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. The lowest point since then was on June 30, when it fell to $57,717.

Price structure and fund flows

Since then, Bitcoin has made higher lows, suggesting each pullback has stopped above the last, with buyers stepping in around the mid-$70,000s in September and again at $80,000 on October 8. On that date, exchanges had to close $1.1 billion worth of leveraged positions—trades made with borrowed funds that exchanges close once losses eat through the trader’s deposit.

We also shared information about Bitcoin funds. Spot Bitcoin funds, which directly hold Bitcoin for investors who buy shares through brokerage accounts, have a total of $105.8 billion in assets. These funds saw a $731 million outflow on October 7 and 8, but investors added $21 million on October 9.

Finally, we included historical election data, noting that Bitcoin fell about 20% in the month leading up to the 2022 midterms, largely due to the collapse of a major crypto exchange, and dropped about 7% in the four weeks before the 2018 midterms.

Election day forecast and confidence ranges

Grok believes Bitcoin is consolidating, trading in a relatively narrow range while maintaining its pattern of higher lows. It also considered the short-term holder cost basis—the average price recent buyers paid—which Grok assessed at the low-to-mid $70,000s. This price point matters because traders often watch it, knowing newer buyers might sell if prices fall below what they paid.

According to Grok, the price structure remains positive as long as Bitcoin stays above this support zone. It identified resistance, where selling typically occurs, in the mid-to-high $80,000s. Grok’s main scenario suggests a slow upward trend, tempered by caution ahead of the elections and the historical trend of weak fourth quarters during midterm years. However, it noted the uncertainty of this trend, as past cycle bottoms and the 2022 exchange failure complicate the picture.

Volatility is a key reason Grok maintains its close-to-current price forecast. Options traders gauge implied volatility, or expected price movement, using contracts that let them buy or sell in the future at a set price. Grok noted a reading in the mid-30s, signifying a probable swing of around 8% to 9% in the three weeks before the elections.

Grok provided an 80% confidence range for Bitcoin’s price on November 3, estimating it between $72,000 and $97,000. The lower end of this range reflects a possible test of short-term holder support, while the upper end suggests a potential breakout above recent highs.

Additionally, Grok assigned a 30% chance of Bitcoin exceeding $90,000 on November 3, and a 25% chance of it dropping below $75,000. This assessment leans slightly to the upside, tempered by election-related uncertainties and recent fund outflows.

We inquired whether the election outcome could influence Bitcoin’s price. Grok confirmed it could, expecting a potential price move of about 7% in either direction within a week after the election, depending on how the results align with investor expectations. Control of Congress can also affect key crypto legislation, such as the stalled CLARITY Act. Historically, Bitcoin’s price reactions after elections have varied, though it often trends positively over more extended periods.

Grok formulated its forecasts based on the data we provided, without access to live buy and sell orders on exchanges. The model also independently calculated the probabilities rather than reading them from any market.

We consider Grok’s $85,000 estimate a reasonable midpoint for this three-week forecast, mainly because volatility metrics suggest limited room for significant movement in either direction. Bitcoin holders should watch two key areas: a close above Grok’s resistance in the mid-to-high $80,000s could validate its more optimistic scenarios, while a drop below the low-to-mid $70,000s could bring the $72,000 lower boundary into play.

Monitoring fund flows provides an additional gauge. After the $731 million outflow from Bitcoin funds on October 7 and 8, steady inflows could help support the upward move Grok described. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s price on November 3 will put Grok’s model to the test.