Bitcoin, ether perpetual volumes on Kalshi are dominated by an unusual, repetitive trade, data shows
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Bots scale their quotes and contract sizes dynamically to hedge against adverse price action and control risk exposure, a concept proven by the landmark Avellaneda-Stoikov Model.
In Kalshi's case, the shifts from roughly $4,999 to $3,999, $4,499 and $5,499 suggest that the strategy’s notional-size parameters were periodically adjusted.
However, public order-book data cannot establish whether the activity reflected legitimate trading or rebate farming.
Critics raise concerns
Trading became exceptionally cheap for some firms that settled their own transactions directly with Kalshi shortly before CoinDesk’s four-day sample began.
A rebate program filed with the CFTC took effect on Sept. 16, cutting fees for those firms to 0.003% and paying market makers a rebate of the same size. It began one day before the four-day sample but almost a month after the $5,499 trades first appeared. That means the program does not explain the emergence of the recurring trade sizes, though it could affect the economics of trading during the later sample.
Pseudonymous trader ‘Beni’ flagged the repeating sizes on X over the weekend and accused Kalshi of inflating its crypto volume. "Kalshi fakes their crypto volume and I can prove it," he alleged.
Kalshi's crypto head, who posts as IcoBeast, disputed part of Beni’s argument, saying that a volume-share chart Beni cited covered prediction markets rather than perpetual futures. He added that Kalshi does not pay rebates on its crypto prediction markets and must publicly file incentives offered on its regulated exchange.
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