Bitcoin price outlook October 2026: Will BTC USD hit $90,000 after a 43.8% rally as Fed rate hike, oil above $100 and slowing ETF inflows loom?

Bitcoin has rallied 43.8% in three months

Bitcoin is heading into October after a sharp summer rebound, but the rally is about to face several important tests. Bitcoin was trading at $84,000 level on September 30. The Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 meeting could become a major focus for the cryptocurrency market, while oil prices above $100 a barrel and slower inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are adding to the uncertainty. As per to 24/7 Wall St., Bitcoin has gained 43.8% over the past 90 days after rising from about $57,800 in early July. But despite the rebound, the cryptocurrency remains well below its record high.

Bitcoin has climbed about 30% over the past 60 days and 43.8% over the past 90 days. The cryptocurrency rose from roughly $57,800 in early July to around $84,000 on September 30, bringing buyers back into the market after the earlier decline. Even after that recovery, Bitcoin remains 34.1% below its all-time high of $126,080, which was recorded last year on October 6. The 24/7 Wall St. analysis also puts Bitcoin down 3.8% for the year. The rebound has therefore recovered a significant portion of Bitcoin’s losses, but the cryptocurrency is still below its previous record.

Fed’s October 27-28 meeting could be crucial for Bitcoin

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, according to the 24/7 Wall St. report. It was the Fed’s first rate increase since 2023, and the decision was unanimous. The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet again on October 27-28. CME FedWatch was showing a 64% probability of another quarter-point increase in the rate, according to the same report.

Higher interest rates can weigh on Bitcoin because it does not pay interest or dividends. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 5.17% on September 25, giving investors another yield-bearing asset to consider. At the same time, a pause in rate increases could provide support for Bitcoin.

Oil above $100 could add another headwind

Oil prices are another factor being watched as October approaches. Brent crude has moved back above $100 a barrel after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to 24/7 Wall St. Higher oil prices could add to inflation pressures, potentially giving the Federal Reserve another reason to raise interest rates. That creates another link between the oil market and Bitcoin: if higher energy prices contribute to inflation, expectations for tighter monetary policy could also affect cryptocurrency prices.

Bitcoin ETF inflows have started to slow

Bitcoin’s ETF market is also showing signs of losing some momentum. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold $108.4 billion, according to the 24/7 Wall St. report. Almost $1 billion flowed into the funds on September 21. By September 25, however, the daily inflow had fallen to $134 million. Money was still flowing into the funds, but the pace had slowed considerably over those four days. For Bitcoin, that leaves ETF demand as another factor to watch as October begins.

BTC USD price levels to watch in October

Bitcoin’s recent trading range has left several price levels in focus. According to the 24/7 Wall St. analysis, Bitcoin needs to move above $87,397, the high reached on September 21, to continue its upward trend. That level is about 5.2% above the cryptocurrency’s September 30 price of approximately $83,070. A move above $87,397 could bring $90,000 into focus. From $83,070, that would represent an increase of about 8.3%.

On the downside, Bitcoin is trading just below the $83,513 low recorded on September 23. The analysis identifies $80,875, the September 18 close, as the next support level. Below that, $75,585, the September 15 close, is another level to watch.

Standard Chartered still sees Bitcoin at $100,000

Despite the challenges facing Bitcoin, Standard Chartered continues to expect the cryptocurrency to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026. CryptoProwl reported that Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets, reaffirmed the $100,000 year-end target after previously cutting his forecast from an earlier $300,000 estimate. Kendrick had previously expected Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. He later reduced his target to $100,000 for the end of 2026 as the crypto winter took hold.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of just over $126,000 in October 2025 before falling as low as $58,000 at the end of June 2026. The cryptocurrency then rebounded during the third quarter, rising from $59,101.49 on July 1 to about $84,500 on September 30, according to the CryptoProwl report. That represented a gain of more than 40% during the quarter and outpaced the S&P 500, which gained less than 3% between July and September.

Kendrick described Bitcoin’s earlier decline as a buying opportunity rather than evidence of a structural decline in the digital asset, according to CryptoProwl.