Bitcoin Rebounds as Whales Keep Buying Despite ETF Outflows

Bitcoin traded near Rs. 80.3 lakh on Monday as the cryptocurrency market tried to stabilise after recent selling, with large holders accumulating and providing support despite volatile institutional flows. Ethereum (ETH) was trading near Rs. 2.45 lakh, while major altcoins showed mixed momentum. Market participants said optimism over a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and continued corporate buying have supported the recovery, although a stronger US dollar, elevated Treasury yields and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's next move continue to weigh on sentiment. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin traded near $84,100 (roughly Rs. 80.5 lakh), while Ethereum was priced at $2,570 (roughly Rs. 2.46 lakh).

The world's largest cryptocurrency rose 0.7 percent in the last 24 hours, according to the Gadgets 360 price tracker, but the rebound remains tentative after US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $681 million (roughly Rs. 6,529 crore) in outflows, ending a three-week run of inflows. Analysts said whale accumulation of around 15,000 BTC over 72 hours and a 193,000 BTC increase in corporate holdings this year point to continued conviction among large buyers.

Major Altcoins Show Mixed Momentum on Monday

Binance Coin (BNB) was priced around $754 (roughly Rs. 72,200), while Solana (SOL) traded near $112 (roughly Rs. 10,700). XRP hovered around $1.41 (roughly Rs. 135), while Dogecoin (DOGE) traded near $0.087 (roughly Rs. 8.6).

Highlighting Bitcoin's recovery and the continued demand from large holders despite institutional outflows, Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex, said, “More than $2.4 billion (roughly Rs. 22,992 crore) in positions were liquidated, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $681 million (roughly Rs. 6,529 crore) in outflows, snapping a three-week run of inflows. On the demand side, whale accumulation of roughly 15,000 BTC over 72 hours and a 193,000 BTC increase in corporate holdings this year point to continued conviction among large buyers. Leverage is also well below levels seen before last October's $19 billion (roughly Rs. 1,820 crore) liquidation event, suggesting lower systemic risk.”

Macroeconomic Factors and Technical Outlook

Commenting on Bitcoin's recovery and the factors limiting further upside, Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com, said, “ETF flows remain volatile. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw heavy outflows on October 7 and 8, signalling cautious institutional sentiment [...] Investors should avoid chasing short-term rallies [...] Staggered buying, smaller position sizes and close attention to ETF flows and US inflation data can help investors manage volatility.”

Pointing to the importance of macroeconomic conditions and Bitcoin's immediate technical levels, the CoinSwitch Markets Desk said, “The immediate hurdle is $85,000-$85,500 (roughly Rs. 81.4 lakh-Rs. 81.9 lakh), with support at $82,000-$83,000 (roughly Rs. 78.6 lakh-Rs. 79.5 lakh) providing a key test if momentum fades. Wednesday's US inflation print could influence that next move by reshaping expectations for the Fed's rate path. With the dollar near an 18-month high, Treasury yields elevated and Middle East tensions adding uncertainty, BTC's ability to reclaim higher levels will depend partly on whether macro conditions begin to ease.”

Overall, analysts said whale accumulation and growing corporate Bitcoin holdings are providing support despite volatile ETF flows and recent liquidations. However, elevated Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's next move could limit the recovery. Bitcoin's $82,000-$83,000 (roughly Rs. 78.6 lakh-Rs. 79.5 lakh) support zone remains important, while reclaiming $85,000-$85,500 (roughly Rs. 81.4 lakh-Rs. 81.9 lakh) could strengthen momentum towards $87,000 (roughly Rs. 83.3 lakh). Investors are also watching US CPI data due on October 14 for clues about the interest-rate outlook.