The AI race may be decided by financing—not just better chips

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Key takeaways

Broadcom and Nvidia are mobilizing billions in debt and capital to help AI customers purchase infrastructure.
OpenAI and Anthropic report massive annualized revenues, though reporting methodologies vary widely.
Analysts warn that complex financing structures recall past transparency issues seen in major corporate conglomerates.

This week brought more evidence that the competition in AI extends beyond technology into financing. Broadcom has reportedly held talks to raise around $30 billion in debt to help OpenAI buy chips they are developing together, following a similar $35 billion Anthropic deal and another $60 billion package in the works for Anthropic and others. Nvidia recently partnered with six finance firms to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital to finance customers’ AI infrastructure; it has direct stakes in AI companies valued at almost $100 billion. Meanwhile, AMD has offered OpenAI and Meta warrants for up to 320 million shares at a penny each to give those customers a stake in its success.

These playbooks are not new. Manufacturers like General Motors and General Electric have long helped customers buy their products through financing and investing in infrastructure. What’s different, perhaps, is the scale and uncertainty around the core product. As Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD compete through financing and equity incentives, there’s also the question of competition. Are customers paying the right price and can they shop around?

Understanding the AI financing ecosystem

Before building their businesses around an AI provider, leaders should understand the ecosystem behind it: what capital is firmly committed, who bears the losses, and whether investment or purchasing agreements constrain its choices—and ultimately theirs.

Much of this financing rests on the labs’ revenue growth, which is why the numbers matter. As OpenAI and Anthropic move toward IPOs, we should get a clearer picture. The FT reported yesterday that OpenAI shared updated financials showing annualized revenue approaching $50 billion as of the end of September. That’s about $20 billion less than what was circulated to investors last month. OpenAI and Anthropic also calculate that revenue differently, with the latter including revenue booked by its cloud partners. Strip that out and Anthropic’s $60 billion annualized revenue through the end of July is probably about a third less.

Demands for clarity and transparency

Those are big fluctuations on some pretty big numbers. All the more reason to know what’s being committed, on what terms, and what happens if things go wrong. There was a time when GE Capital was reported as a single line item, despite making up almost half of GE’s earnings. The financial crisis and demands for transparency forced more disclosure, highlighting vulnerabilities investors didn’t like. These are different times and going public may create higher demands for more clarity on what’s really fueling the AI boom.

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